Menus of hedges that historically match specific worries. Not a recommendation to buy anything — a reference library. Expand a worry to see the mental model.
🔥 If you're worried about inflation
TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities): principal adjusts with CPI. Boring, works when CPI is actually measured well. Fails when "real" inflation diverges from official CPI.
I-Bonds: US Treasury savings bonds indexed to CPI. Capped at $10k/person/year. Safest direct CPI hedge.
Gold / silver: classic inflation hedge. Works erratically — 1970s yes, 1980s no. Negative real yield when rates are high.
Commodities broadly (DBC, PDBC): oil, copper, wheat. Historical inflation correlation strong. Volatile.
Real estate: rents and property values rise with inflation. Fails when rate hikes crush valuations faster than rents catch up.
Dividend equities (staples, utilities): companies that can pass costs through to customers. Boring, steady, historically hold up.
Typical hedge allocation: 5–15% of assets across 2–3 of these, not all of one.
💵 If you're worried about dollar devaluation
Foreign currency diversification: small allocations to CHF, JPY, EUR — not speculation, just not-100%-dollar. Via FXF/FXY/FXE ETFs or foreign bank accounts for residents.
Hard assets: gold, real estate, productive land, commodities. Benefit when fiat trust erodes.
Export-oriented US equities: multinationals earning in foreign currencies (KO, PG, MSFT). A weaker dollar boosts their reported earnings.
International equity (VXUS, developed + emerging): direct dollar-alternative exposure.
Bitcoin, cautiously: has a dollar-hedge narrative. Behaves like tech stock more than gold most of the time.
Dollar weakness is slow. Don't bet on overnight collapse; structure for 5–10 year trends.
📉 If you're worried about recession
Cash buffer: 6–12 months of expenses in a high-yield savings account. The single most durable recession defense for a small-business operator.
Recession-resistant sectors: consumer staples (KO, PG, WMT), utilities, healthcare, discount retail (DG). They underperform in bull markets, outperform in busts.
Short-to-intermediate Treasuries: 2–5Y duration. Benefit if the Fed cuts rates; lower drawdowns than equities in crisis.
Bond ladder: rungs maturing every 3–6 months. Lets you reinvest at higher rates if they rise; partial protection if they fall.
Income diversification: exactly what you're doing with multiple streams. The structural hedge small-business owners control.
Historically, equities bottom 6–9 months into a recession, not at the start. Don't try to time; focus on cash runway.
⛽ If you're worried about energy / oil spikes
Energy equities: XOM, CVX, OXY. Direct oil-price leverage. Volatile; time horizon matters.
Energy ETFs (XLE, VDE): diversified sector exposure.
Oil futures ETFs (USO, BNO): track oil price directly. Contango drag — don't hold long-term.
MLPs / pipelines (AMLP, MPLX): toll-booth on oil + gas flow. Income-generating, less volatile than producers.
Personal hedge: efficient vehicle, home energy efficiency, local sourcing for food. Reduce the spike's direct impact.
Pure oil exposure is volatile. A 3–5% portfolio allocation is typical; 20% is a bet, not a hedge.
🏚 If you're worried about a housing crash
If you own a primary residence: keep it. Paper price doesn't matter; rates matter. If you can afford the mortgage, a "crash" is just a lower Zestimate.
If you're a potential buyer: waiting is defensible if prices drop faster than rates rise. But rates dropping usually lifts prices. Run both scenarios.
Home-price ETFs (short): SRS (Proshares UltraShort Real Estate) for active bets. Dangerous for long-term holders.
REITs to avoid / reduce: office and retail-heavy REITs (SPG, BXP) most vulnerable.
REITs that hold up better: residential rental (AVB, EQR), cell towers (AMT), data centers (EQIX).
"Housing crash" usually means -20% peak-to-trough over 3-5 years, not overnight collapse. Leverage is the killer, not price.
🌍 If you're worried about dollar-system breakdown / de-dollarization
This is the hardest one to hedge without overweighting. The scenarios where it matters are also scenarios where financial markets are chaotic.
Physical precious metals (not ETFs): for true "end of fiat" scenarios, paper gold won't help. 1–5% of assets in coins/bars stored accessibly.
Productive assets: land, tools, skills, business equity. Wealth that survives currency failure.
International diversification: accounts or property in a politically stable, non-US jurisdiction.
Strong personal network: community that would function during a disruption. Understated hedge.
The catastrophic scenario most people hedge for almost never happens in their lifetime. Position for "slow erosion" (which is likely) rather than "overnight collapse" (which is rare).